Larry Roberts real estate writing blog

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Real Estate Loan: The Appropriate Discount Rate for Residential Real Estate Analysis

The investment value of a property can only be measured against other investment opportunities available to an investor. If investors can earn 4.5% by investing in government treasuries, they will demand a higher return to invest in an asset as volatile and as illiquid as residential real...
The Appropriate Discount Rate for Residential Real Estate Analysis

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OCHN: Republican victories may doom mortgage finance reform

If Republicans take initiative and find common ground among themselves concerning mortgage finance reform, it’s unlikely Obama would sign the legislation.

The Republicans won control of the US Senate to go along with their control of the House of Representatives. If they wish to take the...
Republican victories may doom mortgage finance reform

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

OCHN: Greenspan: Ending stimulus to cause turmoil in real estate markets

Alan Greenspan thinks it’s impossible for the federal reserve to remove stimulus without disrupting asset prices in real estate and other markets.

Nobody is perfect. We hope we put people in positions of power who know what they are doing; however, sometimes these people fail, and when t...
Greenspan: Ending stimulus to cause turmoil in real estate markets

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Mortgage Refinance: Visualizing the Real Estate Bubble

With a huge influx of capital into the secondary mortgage market when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates in 2001-2004, the industry was under tremendous pressure to deliver more loans to hungry investors seeking higher yields. This caused the already-low loan standards to be all but...
Visualizing the Real Estate Bubble

Mortgage Foreclosure: Low MLS inventory a boon to homebuilders

Yesterday, in the post Can the Fed reflate the housing bubble without negative side effects?, I discussed the various market distortions resulting from the federal reserve’s zero-interest-rate policy. The inflated asset values are byproducts of the fed’s actions, but with respect to...
Low MLS inventory a boon to homebuilders

OCHN: First-time homebuyer participation hits three-decade low

Both resales and new home purchases by first-time homebuyers are well below historic norms. What does that mean for the future of housing?

First-time homebuyers are the bedrock of the housing market, the foundation upon which all housing activity rests. The amounts first-time homebuyers can...
First-time homebuyer participation hits three-decade low

Monday, November 3, 2014

USA Foreclosure: Lenders unwilling to loan to wealthy strategic defaulters, hoocoodanode?

Actions have consequences — which is not to say that many bailout advocates want everyone to avoid these consequences — but in the real world, the decisions we make impact our lives. When rational people make good decisions, they carefully consider the potential consequences of their...
Lenders unwilling to loan to wealthy strategic defaulters, hoocoodanode?

OCHN: Are evil landlords capriciously evicting hapless renters?

Banks allow delinquent borrowers to squat long-term and offer special deals to gain some payments. Are landlords evil for evicting their deadbeats?

The political left wants everyone to have free housing. If people don’t pay their mortgage, the political left wants to see their payments or...
Are evil landlords capriciously evicting hapless renters?

Sunday, November 2, 2014

Loan Mod Default: The failure of loan mods caused a new wave of foreclosures

I am constantly amazed by the ignorance of the mainstream media when it comes to housing issues. They consistently cheer-lead, take the NAr’s statements at face value, and fail to question their rosy assumptions. This behavior provides people bad information and may cause someone to buy...
The failure of loan mods caused a new wave of foreclosures

USA Housing: Will increasing use of adjustable-rate mortgages lead to future delinquencies?

When mortgage interest rates spike suddenly, many buyers move away from fixed-rate mortgages to adjustables because the interest rate is more favorable, and ARMs allow them to complete the purchase they negotiated before the rates went up. As one might expect, the sudden increase in rates from...
Will increasing use of adjustable-rate mortgages lead to future delinquencies?

OCHN: San Bernardino County Housing Market News: October 2014

Historically, properties in this market sell at a 25.7% discount. Today’s discount is 33.8%. This market is 8.1% undervalued.
Median home price is $256,200 with a rental parity value of $386,000. This market’s discount is $129,800.
Monthly payment affordability has been improving...
San Bernardino County Housing Market News: October 2014

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Ponzi Debt: Ponzi borrowers are defaulting in larger numbers

Whenever a borrower is unable to make current debt-service obligations from current income, they have two choices: either declare bankruptcy, or use more debt to pay their debt service. Once a borrower starts using debt to pay debt, they’ve gone Ponzi. During the housing bubble, many...
Ponzi borrowers are defaulting in larger numbers