Sunday, April 25, 2010
Gawd, I heard it again
How do you feel about these low rates. The low rates are making homes more affordable than they have been in a long time. However the low rates are also helping to prop up home prices. People buy homes based on monthly payment, not total price. Most buyers will figure out what monthly payment they can afford and the current interest rate will allow them to calculate how much they can spend. Rates are currently very low compared to long term average rates. So, what happens if rates go up? People can't afford as much house. This puts pressure on prices. In a normal market demand dictates prices. If people cannot afford the payments at a higher interest rate, demand drops and prices will follow.
Assuming the monthly payment is the same, what's better, a low price with a high interest rate or a high price with a low interest rate? It should seem obvious but a lower price with a high rate is better for several reasons.
1) If rates drop you can refi. With the rates as low as they are now you can forget about a future refi to take advantage of rate drop.
2) A lower purchase price means lower property taxes. And who doesn't like lower taxes.
3) If you do buy when rates are low you face the possibility of a drop in value if rates spike. You could easily find yourself underwater, trapped in the house.
There are some other advantages of a high interest rate. A lower purchase price and a high interest rate it makes paying off the home early much more attractive. If you can pay extra towards the principal you can really cut down on the total cost of the home and pay it off early. Because much more of the monthly payment is interest the mortgage write off might be higher.
Are interest rates going to shoot up. I'm sure they are..... eventually. Personally I don't think they are going anywhere for a few years. The government will need to keep the rates low in order to keep the economy from totally tanking. Also inflation is still relatively low so there isn't much pressure to raise the rates. But 5 years from now things could be very different. So if you buy, buy something you will want to stay in for a while.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Inside deals
Everything from short sale shenanigans to pocket listings to outright insider fraud. If you just look at the active listings you might not notice these deals. However, if you look at the pendings and the sales histories you will start to notice many of the sales just don't pass the smell test.
Take this one for instance, 3162 Vandermolen in Norco. It hit the market just this morning at what looks like a reasonable price. I saw it pop onto Redfin this morning and figured I would go look at it this weekend. But when I got home from work it's already pending. More than likely a pocket listing. The agent already has a buyer but has to show the bank it was actually listed. Maybe I should contact the bank???
How about this one at 1440 Valley. This was another house that hit the market for about 30 seconds and then went pending. The listing price is probably about $75k-$100k less than this house would sell for on the open market. It's a short sale so maybe the bank will get wise to the deal.
Between deals like these, flippers and clueless agents it's no wonder most buyers are finding this market a frustrating thing to deal with.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Weekend bits and pieces.
California sets a new record! Unfortunately its a new high in unemployment, 12.6%
You have only 2 weeks to left before the federal tax credit expires. To qualify you must sign a contract by April 30th.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Here They Come.
Bank of America, the nation's largest mortgage lender, ramped up its foreclosure activity in March, sending hundreds of letters warning delinquent borrowers in the region that it could sell their homes at auction in as little as three weeks, according to North County Times analysis of data from ForeclosureRadar.
The bank said the increased activity was a natural consequence of borrowers running out of options. Analysts and real estate agents said the moves by the Charlotte, N.C., banking giant, which controls a large share of the Southern California mortgage market, could signal a final reckoning for homeowners who have been protected by government programs for months or even years.
Last month, a Bank of America division called ReconTrust N.A. sent out a flurry of "notices of auction," which alert owners of the date their homes could be sold in foreclosure proceedings.The notices went to 230 homeowners in North San Diego County, a 69 percent increase from February, and to 391 owners in Southwest Riverside County, up 67 percent from February. By comparison, in March 2009, ReconTrust sent a total of 31 such letters to both regions combined.
ReconTrust was formed as the foreclosure division of Countrywide Financial Services Inc., the company that helped drive the real estate boom of the 2000s with its no-documentation "liar loans" and enormous subprime portfolio.
More foreclosures expected
When Bank of America agreed to take over Countrywide in January 2008, Countrywide said it managed 9 million loans valued at $1.5 trillion. Richard Simon, a Bank of America spokesman, wrote in an e-mail that he couldn't speak to the sharp increase of notices in San Diego and Riverside counties, but that the bank has expected more foreclosure activity.
"We have reported recently that we anticipate a rise in foreclosure activity through the coming months as homeowners are unable to qualify for loan modifications, fall out of modification programs or go into delinquency due to the ongoing stress in the economy," he said.
Bank of America has permanently lowered monthly payments for 12,700 borrowers through the Treasury Department's Home Affordable Modification Program, more than any other lender. But the program as a whole is widely deemed a failure, because just 17 percent of applicants nationally have managed to qualify and keep up their payments, according to the latest Treasury report.
Data showing that Bank of America borrowers were falling out of HAMP and into foreclosure in rising numbers didn't surprise analysts. "That makes sense," said Jamie Peters, a financial analyst who covers Bank of America for the investment research firm Morningstar Inc. "'We've given them the chance, it hasn't worked, we need to move ahead' type of idea," Peters said.
Another analyst who tracks Bank of America, Shannon Stemm of investment bank Edward Jones, said the loans now being foreclosed are "older," meaning borrowers had plenty of time to try a modification, and the bank had to get the delinquent loans off their books. "A lot of the bad loans we're seeing from a couple of quarters ago are getting to a place where (Bank of America) need to make a decision for what to do with that bad loan," she said. Morningstar's Peters thought the bank might be taking advantage of a strengthening California housing market.
"My Bank of America asset manager told me we'd really start to get hit with inventory in mid-May to June," said Teri Garcia, a real estate agent based in Escondido who sells Bank of America foreclosures.
"If they're sending notices of auction in March, that about fits," she said. Garcia said the local supply of foreclosed homes has been low all through the winter. She was thrilled to hear that more homes might be coming onto the market this summer. "Let's get them on the market, get them sold, and get through all this," she said.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
March numbers
So while the number look good on the surface the other data is telling a different story. FHA buyers, flippers and distress sales are most of the market. And that market is not a healthy market.
A total of 20,476 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 33.3 percent from 15,359 in February, and up 5.0 percent from 19,506 in March 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
Sales always go up from February to March. Last month was the 21st in a row with a year-over-year sales increase. The March sales average is 24,936 going back to 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.
“It’s a reflection of just how grim things got, that we’ve now had almost two years of sales gains and we’re still 18 percent below the sales average. The market won’t rebalance until mortgage lending patterns normalize, and that’s just not happening yet. Some of the best deals out there right now are happening when the buyer comes in with cash,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
The median price paid for a Southland home was $285,000 last month, up 3.6 percent from $275,000 in February, and up 14.0 percent from $250,000 for March 2009.
The median peaked at $505,000 in mid 2007 and appears, so far, to have bottomed out at $247,000 in April last year. The peak-to-trough drop in the median was due to a decline in home values as well as a shift in sales toward low-cost homes, especially foreclosures.
Foreclosure resales accounted for 38.4 percent of the resale market last month, down from 42.3 percent in February, and down from 54.8 percent a year ago. The all-time high was in February 2009 at 56.7 percent.
Meanwhile, Uncle Sam continues to prop up lending for many low-to mid-priced homes. Government-insured FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 38.6 percent of all mortgages used to purchase Southland homes in March.
Absentee buyers – mostly investors and some second-home purchasers – bought 21.3 percent of the homes sold in March.
Buyers who appeared to have paid all cash – meaning there was no indication that a corresponding purchase loan was recorded – accounted for 27.1 percent of March sales. In February it was a revised 30.0 percent – an all-time high. The 22-year monthly average for Southland homes purchased with cash is 13.8 percent.
The “flipping” of homes has also trended higher the past year, though it eased a bit in March. Last month the percentage of Southland homes flipped – bought and re-sold – within a three-week to six-month period was 3.2 percent of total sales, down from 3.5 percent in February but up from 1.6 percent a year ago. Last month flipping varied from as little as 2.6 percent of total sales in Riverside County to as much as 3.9 percent in Los Angeles County.
| All homes | Mar-09 | Mar-10 | %Chng | Mar-09 | Mar-10 | %Chng |
| Los Angeles | 5,971 | 6,747 | 13.0% | $300,000 | $329,000 | 9.7% |
| Orange | 2,433 | 2,652 | 9.0% | $385,000 | $432,000 | 12.2% |
| Riverside | 4,409 | 4,156 | -5.7% | $187,000 | $198,000 | 5.9% |
| San Bernardino | 2,897 | 2,955 | 2.0% | $150,000 | $152,000 | 1.3% |
| San Diego | 3,020 | 3,227 | 6.9% | $285,000 | $330,000 | 15.8% |
| Ventura | 776 | 739 | -4.8% | $326,000 | $375,000 | 15.0% |
| SoCal | 19,506 | 20,476 | 5.0% | $250,000 | $285,000 | 14.0% |
Monday, April 5, 2010
The short sale plan kicks in
There's already a bunch of articles in the news this week talking about the upcoming short sale tusnami.
Today the Administration's Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternative Plan takes effect, offering incentives to borrowers, servicers, investors and second lien holders to push short sales through the system. Yep, everyone gets a cut of government funds to get these troubled borrowers out of their homes and get them sold, even if the sale price is less than the value of the loan.
I find it interesting that before the plan even went into effect today, the Administration upped the incentives a week ago, doubling the amount of cash to $3000 offered as borrower "relocation expenses" and juicing the payoffs to the others as well. Of course they want to push short sales because of course they know that their modification program isn't working as planned.
But the biggest impediment to the plan is the lenders themselves, who have to weigh what's going to save them the most money and cause them the least bleeding on their books.
I'm also starting to hear rumblings among the number crunchers that the wave of foreclosures we keep hearing about is about to hit with a thunderous roar.
Servicers are ramping up the mod process and pushing those who don't qualify out the door more quickly than ever. A big jump in inventories, which we already saw last month, right in the midst of the Spring market will turn home prices on their heels.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Time for another bailout
I came across this gem on bubbleinfo.com
Timothy Geithner is a Sniveling Scamster
Whew. That was fast. It didn’t take long for Wall Street to figure out how to game Obama’s new mortgage modification program, did it? The plan was hyped as help for “struggling homeowners”, but it turns out, it’s just another stealth bailout for pudgy bank-execs. It’s funny, the program hasn’t even kicked in yet and, already, bigtime speculators are riffling through their filing cabinets looking any garbage paper they can find to dump on Uncle Sam. Take a look at this on today’s Bloomberg report:
“Subprime-mortgage securities are rising at an accelerating pace as the U.S. begins to encourage reductions to homeowners’ balances, which may lead to fewer foreclosures and a quicker end to the housing slump….Senior-ranked bonds tied to borrowers with poor credit will mostly benefit after the Treasury Department said for the first time it would seek to cut the size of mortgages, reducing the likelihood that loan modifications will fail, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. (Bloomberg)
What does it mean? It means that Obama’s mortgage modification extravaganza has touched-off a gold rush in toxic paper. Subprime securitizations, which had been worth next to nothing, are now the hottest trade on Wall Street. It’s a subprime bonanza! The investment sharpies are scarfing up all the crummy MBS they can get their hands on, because they know they can trade it in for Triple A FHA-backed loans when the program get’s going. It’s another swindle cooked up by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to keep the brokerage clan in the clover. Here’s how a Wall Street veteran explained it to me:
“It looks like the investors in securitizations will be swapping underwater real estate for govt-insured paper… I think the scam here is just to provide some cover so the hedge funds and other high net worth individuals can trade their low grade paper for Triple AAA mortgages insured by the FHA at the taxpayer expense.”
That’s it, in a nutshell. The faux-foreclosure prevention program has nothing to do with helping homeowners. That’s just diversionary gibberish to confuse the public. The real objective is to create a government landfill (aka–FHA) where the banks and other financial institutions can dump their toxic MBS-sludge and walk away with gov-backed loans. Get a load of this:
(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve’s completion this week of its program to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage bonds probably won’t mean significantly higher U.S. home loan rates as investors return to the market, replacing the Fed…
What we are seeing is an effective handoff occurring between the Fed and industry buyers such as banks and pension funds,” said Christopher Sebald, chief investment officer for Advantus Capital Management in St. Paul, Minnesota…
Advantus is purchasing mortgage bonds after the Fed’s program drained supply in the $5.4 trillion market.” (Bloomberg)
Of course, they’re “purchasing mortgage bonds”, because the government is going to insure them. It’s a “no brainer”. And don’t you love that expression, “a handoff”, because that’s exactly what it is. The government hasn’t stopped pumping liquidity into the system; they’ve just found another entry-point where they can push it in. Here’s how it works: The new program offers incentives to banks and other deep-pocketed investors (in mortgage-backed securities) to slash the principal on underwater mortgages which keeps people from strategic default or foreclosure. Sounds good, right? But here’s the catch: When the mortgage is refinanced, it’s converted into a FHA-backed loan which provides an explicit gov-guarantee. So, for a slight loss on the face-value of the MBS, the investors (ie–investment banks, hedgies, etc) are able to resuscitate their moribund securitizations (MBS) and reap hefty gains. It’s like taking Fido’s steaming pile on the front lawn and turning it into the Hope Diamond. Abracadabra!
Geithner has figured out how to put together a bailout that will cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars without any money actually exchanging hands. The value of the putrid mortgage-paper will soar because of the gov-underwriting, and the ginormous losses won’t be realized until the mortgages start blowing up sometime in the future. That’s when FHA will be put-to-pasture along with fellow-homicide victims, Fannie and Freddie. Pretty clever, eh?
So, the cutthroat speculators and bunko artists who fleeced us all with their dogshit subprimes, have returned for another dip at the public trough. That means taxpayers will get scalped on the same investments a second time. Hey, it’s a double-whammy!
This really takes the cake. You gotta hand it to that sniveling scamster Geithner. He had his back to the wall and, presto, he extracts another rabbit from his hat. What a guy. He knew he couldn’t go begging to congress for more money, or they’d kick him to the curb. So he worked out a scam that picks up where the Fed’s $1.25 trillion quantitative easing bailout leaves off. It’s a seamless transition from one massive corporate giveaway to the next. Now the Fed has nearly $2 trillion worth of structured garbage on its balance sheet, (which it will undoubtedly dump on Fannie or Freddie) the banks are loaded with fresh reserves, and another trillion or so is earmarked for the shadow bankers who provide funding to the regulated banking system. AND IT’S ALL 100% FREE. Such a deal.
This bank/credit cabal is robbing us blind in broad daylight and no one seems to give a hoot. Maybe Barack Obama will save us from all ruin?
Fat chance!
By Mike Whitney
Friday, April 2, 2010
Riverwalk Vista

Riverwalk Vista, this development could not have had worse timing. Opening right when the market was in free fall. They opened the models with laughable prices and not surprisingly they closed them after a few months and boarded up the few homes they had built. You can drive by it today and see the plywood on the windows of the homes. There must be 30 or 40 homes just sitting there rotting. They are still maintaining the clubhouse, pool and exterior landscaping though. So at least it's not a total eyesore.
I have been wondering what the heck was going on with this development. The Press Enterprise had an article on it today.
More than half of the 402 residential lots in Riverwalk Vista, a master-planned community in Riverside, sold at public auction to a joint venture for $9.5 million.
The winning cash bidder for 217 roughly graded lots was Forestar Land Partners, a joint venture between Foremost Communities, an Irvine-based land developer, and Starwood Capital Group Global, LLC., a $1 billion private equity fund in Greenwich, Conn., that is investing in distressed properties.
As part of the transaction, Forestar Land Partners also acquired the rights to serve as master developer of the entire 100-acre project located south of Interstate 91 at La Sierra Avenue. The project was formerly under development by Griffin Industries, which acquired the land from Riverside Community College.
Steve Cameron, president of Foremost Communities, said development of Riverwalk Vista stalled when the real estate market tanked in 2007 but the completed facilities, including a swim club, fountains, entry gates and a large park, continued to be well maintained. Competition for the controlling half of the property was expected to be fierce, Cameron said. He said for a time the sale was put on hold while the foreclosing banks Bank of the West, Wells Fargo and City National Bank worked out a business plan. But when the property went to went to auction March 17 on the steps of the Corona Civic Center, Forestar Land Partners was the only bidder other than the foreclosing banks. The banks raised the opening price by $600,000 before Forestar made the winning bid, said Cameron. ( x One Bidder, not exactly FIERCE bidding) Forestar Land Partners would like to buy the remaining 185 lots in the project when they become available for sale, Cameron said. Included, according to the city, are six furnished models and 30 houses that are almost completely built. No houses in the community are as yet occupied. Cameron said he expects the banks will select a buyer for the rest of the lots within a few months and that Forestar Land Partners will have an edge over the competition because of its master developer status. Clara Miramontes, principal planner for the city of Riverside, said city officials are pleased to learn than the Riverwalk Vista project is going forward. "We are very glad the banks were able to find a developer that has the financial resources to jumpstart the project again," she said. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 9.5 Million for 217 finished lots. I'm fairly sure all the streets and services are in already so that's a smoking deal. $44k per lot should give the developer a lot of room to build reasonably priced homes. I think it will still be a couple of years before this development gets opened back up.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Beleive it or not, a Realtor wrote this
Is there any reason why homes today should be worth twice as much as in 1996?
Graphically, prices were heading right back to 1996 until the government decided to spend trillions of dollars to prop them up.
Consider what’s been done to halt the collapse of home prices. Our demand for homes has been artificially boosted with low mortgage rates and tax credits, and our supply of homes for sale has been cut drastically by all of the foreclosure prevention efforts.
For some perspective, check out the original Case-Shiller graph that shows home prices, adjusted for inflation, for the last 100 years or so. Note that the numbers are slightly different because this chart includes all national data, not just large cities.
Looking at long-term trends, we each must fall into one of two camps. Either you believe that, eventually, home prices will revert back to their relative historical norm because people can only pay so much of their monthly income for housing. OR, you believe that this time really is different; that people going forward will be willing to pay relatively more each month for shelter than for the last 120 years.
I don’t see how this time is different. I don’t know why, socioeconomically, people will pay more of their monthly paychecks for housing over the next 120 years than they did for the last 120. Sure, you can make a case that a particular neighborhood or town has become more desirable, but that is irrelevant on a national scale.
In short, if you believe that the economic growth since 1996 was robust enough to justify the doubling of home prices during that time, then perhaps home prices are now at the “correct” levels. But if you believe that most of the economic growth since 1996 was built on bubbles and debt, then it’s hard to find a reason why homes should be twice as expensive.
....................................
Whoddathunkit??? A Realtor that's not full of it. Although in 1996 prices were pretty depressed in Southern California. That was at the bottom of our last crash and many including me think prices were probably a bit undervalued in that time frame. But two or 3 years later prices had recovered to what I would consider normal levels. So what should the median be today based on a "normal" market. In the year 2000 the median price in Riverside was $150k. If we add a decade of normal appreciation the median today would be approx $200k. And remarkably enough that's right about where we are today. However taking into consideration the terrible economy, the high unemployment and the government intervention propping up prices it's probably safe to say we are currently overvalued given the economic conditions. Maybe we should go back to the bottom of the last bust (1996). If we do that we find the median was around $120k and with normal appreciation that would give us a median of $181k today. Not a great deal of difference between the two, primarily because of the additional 4 years of appreciation. So, are we at the bottom? by all indications in most areas of the IE we are, or damn close to it. The only question is how long will prices remain low. Personally I don't think they are going anywhere but sideways for a while. Small normal gains are possible but with the current economy I don't see it happening (assuming the government stays out of the mix). So if you are gonna buy, you better plan on staying a while.
I got the median numbers from the California Association of Realtors and the "normal" appreciation I used was 3%.
Monday, March 29, 2010
How to fix this mess
I read this over at the Irvine Housing Blog,
A 600% increase in foreclosures
I attended a local Building Industry Association conference on Friday 26 March 2010. The west coast manager of real estate owned, Senior Vice President Ken Gaitan, stated that Bank of America, which currently forecloses on 7,500 homes a month nationally, will increase that number to 45,000 homes per month by December of 2010.
After his surprising statement, two questioners from the audience asked questions to verify the numbers.
Bank of America is projecting a 600% increase in its already large number of monthly foreclosures.
This isn't unsubstantiated rumor; this comes straight from one of the most powerful men in Bank of America's OREO department (yes, that really is what they call it). It appears they have too many properties already.
Living in the past

A few years ago you could buy a house, live in it for a year and make $100k. Here's a owner that thinks those days have returned.
3140 Crestview Dr. Norco. The homes sold one year ago to the current owners for $515k. After one year of ownership for what ever the reason the new owners need to bail. I doubt these are flippers since they have horses. Flippers don't bring horses to a flip, they bring paint, carpet and sod. Apparently it's upgraded beyond belief! Although the pics show basic white tile and builder grade cabinets in the bathroom. I have no idea if they poured any money into this or not, but after a year in the home these folks think they are entitled to $115K. Any think these guys have a hope in hell? There's been a few flips sell in the mid $500s recently but those were much larger homes. I'm thinking if they can get out for what they paid they are doing great.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Old story, new twist
My buddy sent me this little gem. It's an old proverb with a new twist.
OLD VERSION
The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter.
The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away..
Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed.
The grasshopper has no food or shelter, so he dies out in the cold
Moral, Work hard and be responsible for yourself.
MODERN VERSION
The ant works hard in the withering heat and the rain all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter.
The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away.
Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed while he is cold and starving.
CBS, NBC , PBS, CNN, and ABC show up to provide pictures of the shivering grasshopper next to a video of the ant in his comfortable home with a table filled with food.
America is stunned by the sharp contrast.
How can this be, that in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so?
Kermit the Frog appears on Oprah with the grasshopper and everybody cries when they sing, 'It's Not Easy Being Green...'
ACORN stages a demonstration in front of the ant's house where the news stations film the group singing, “We shall overcome.” Then Rev. Jeremiah Wright has the group kneel down to pray to God for the grasshopper's sake.
President Obama condemns the ant and blames President Bush, President Reagan, Christopher Columbus, and the Pope for the grasshopper's plight.
Nancy Pelosi & Harry Reid exclaim in an interview with Larry King that the ant has gotten rich off the back of the grasshopper, and both call for an immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his fair share.
Finally, the EEOC drafts the Economic Equity & Anti-Grasshopper Act retroactive to the beginning of the summer.
The ant is fined for failing to hire a proportionate number of green bugs and, having nothing left to pay his retroactive taxes, his home is confiscated by the Government Green Czar and given to the grasshopper.
The story ends as we see the grasshopper and his free-loading friends finishing up the last bits of the ant’s food while the government house he is in, which, as you recall, just happens to be the ant's old house, crumbles around them because the grasshopper doesn't maintain it.
The ant has disappeared in the snow, never to be seen again.
The grasshopper is found dead in a drug related incident, and the house, now abandoned, is taken over by a gang of spiders who terrorize the ramshackle, once prosperous and once peaceful, neighborhood.
The entire Nation collapses bringing the rest of the free world with it.
Moral, What's that.....


