Scam Alert!

Check out this BS

16475 Lake Knoll Pkwy lists as a short sale, it says poor condition but in the pic it looks ok. It lists cheap and goes pending pretty much immediately. It sells pretty cheap and the listing agent and buyers agent and the same guy (who'da thunk it). Now this is where it gets shady. 30 days later, it lists again for $160k more than it sold for, and the agent........ You guessed it, the same guy. But it gets better, the listing states the owner/seller is a realtard! Anyone wanna bet the owner is the listing agent? This looks like a perfect example of short sale fraud. He lists the property indicating it's a dog, gets it cheap and then turns if for a quick profit. And of course the lender takes a bigger loss than they otherwise would have. His asking price is pretty darn high and I doubt that it will sell for anything near that but even if it sells for $350k that's still a very healthy profit assuming he didn't actually need to do a major rehab.

A flip to a flop

8631 PINA CORTE, Corona, CA 92883

This home was featured on the BMIT website back in Sept 07. It was an attempted flip. Here's the text from the BMIT post,

House #3 is 8613 Pina Corte. This is also a 3,629 sqft model that was previously featured by BMIT back in July of '06. At the time, the home was on sale as a REO after the prior owner defaulted on his zero down, 100% financed $735,000 purchase. Perhaps inspired by the impressive sale price from 8650 Pina Corte, a flipper decided he couldn't pass up this home at the bargain basement price of $635,000 in March of '07 (afterall, $215,000 instant equity, right?). The flipper added front and back yard landscaping, a balcony, as well as bamboo flooring, new carpet, and a painted driveway. The flip has been on the MLS since July and after a single price drop it looks like the flipper is sticking to his $825,000 asking price.

So a flipper picked up this place for $635k last year. Dropped another wad of cash upgrading the place and tried to get $850k for it. As you can well imagine that didn't quite work out for our fliptard.

It listed this week (again) at a more reasonable price. It's now listed as a short sale at $399k! Now that is a FLOP!!

The market is BROKEN!

Here's a few examples of a market that has broken down. First a couple of nice homes at reasonable prices. Yes, still high but almost in line with what it would cost to rent something of similar size. Then we have the rest of the market, asking ridiculous, pie in the sky prices as seen by our last two homes. Unfortunately the last two homes are the norm and the first tow are the exceptions (today anyway).

$379k!

13574 MEADOWLANDS CT, Moreno Valley, CA 92555, is a 5 bed 4 bath, 3294 sq/ft mini mansion in Moreno Valley. This is out on the east side of town where the big lots and horse properties are located. This home was built new in 2005. It sold in Dec of 05 for $464k and was quickly flipped in August of 06 for $580k, netting our initial buyer a healthy $116k less fees in 8 months. This home is a bubble poster child. Here we are just 1 year, 2 months later and this home has lost 35% of it's value IF it sells at the $379k asking price. He has competition too at 13535 WILMOT ST, is the same style home one block over, Listed as a short sale at $374k. This poor fliptard paid $565k in July of 06. He's looking at a loss of $191k plus 6% ($22k) in fees. Wow, it's not everyday you get a chance to piss away over $200k in a year. These homes are actually very nice and on big 1/4 acre lots. If you don't mind living in MoVal these are about as cheap as renting something this size. God know what your electric bills in the summer will be though. These two homes are priced to move and I actually think these have a chance of selling, although the first ones been for sale for over 2 months check out this next home though.

Now here's where most sellers are currently living, it's called dreamland USA. Our first seller is only a block away from the two mini mansions at 13680 STODDARD ST. This " CHARMING HOME IN GREAT LOCATION" is a 3 bed, 2 bath, 1305 sq/ft 1985 POS. It's got a slightly larger lot but then again it's just dirt. This beauty has been listed for 102 days so far with no takers at $399k. I wonder why? Another block down we have dreamer #2 at 29046 GIFFORD AVE, this is another 3/2 but slightly bigger at 1700 sq/ft. This home was built in 1975. I didn't think there was anything out there in 75. This dreamer thinks his "classic" is worth a whopping $469k! How can a realtor even take that listing??

$399k??

$469k??

Let's look at a few in Beaumont

Beaumont has never been an area I've ever considered living. I don't even like to get off the freeway there. In the last few years however home builders have gone crazy building homes way out there. I don't know why anyone other than a retiree would move way out there. A few years ago they built the Southern California PGA course out there and quickly started surrounding it with homes.


35162 Hogan DR is a large 5 bed 3 bath, 3390 sq/ft home, built in 2005 it sold for $496k. The owner seems to think it's value has grown like a weed and is now offering this home for the bargain price of $650K. The dullard seems to think he can squeeze $154k out of this place in a year. It's been on the market for 169 days without a reduction in asking price.


35208 HOGAN DR is the same model home only a few doors up the street. This home has never been lived in. Probably a flip gone wrong. It's going to make 35162 Hogan a tad hard to sell considering this one is listed for $425K. That's $225K less for the same model on the same street!

35232 HOGAN DR is yet another of these 3390 sq/ft homes. This one has been sold twice now and has still never been lived in. It looks like a flipper (or the bank) picked this up two months ago for $378K and turned around and put it right back on the market for $425. If 35208 hasn't sold in over 2 months at $425, what makes them think this one will??

If you're gonna dream, dream BIG!

Many parts of the IE are full retreat but some areas have yet to see the approaching apocalypse . Moreno Valley is one of these areas. You would think MoVal would be leading the collapse but looking around I find that most sellers are still unaware there homes have dropped in value. Of course nothing is selling. In August just over 50 homes sold, with something like 2000 on the market there is roughly a 4 year supply. Even the new tracts are resisting the urge to make the drastic reductions I've seen in other areas.

Would you pay $620k to live in a tract home in MoVal? this one is not even in the nicer planned community areas.



13597 SESAME RD is a 4 bed 3283 sq ft tract home in rather unremarkable condition. I don't see any upgrades from the pics. It looks like a builder basic model and these dreamers are asking $620k. They seem to think that $100k should be their reward for living in MoVal for a year. By the way look at the pic, do you think they have enough crap in that house. I guess they don't watch those HGTV shows like Sell this House. One word "declutter" (is that one word?)



Thier neighbor with the same model at 13588 BALSAWOOD LN is asking about 100K less and this home looks much better with at least a few upgrades. Even living on Balsawood Ln is not going to help this flipper keep his head above water. This home was purchased new in 2005 for $390K. Our poor flipper bought it this year in Jan for $508k, and is now trying to escape by selling it at $525K.


This short sale 26567 QUARTZ RD in the same tract is 60K under the original builder sales price of $390k. This home is slightly smaller than homes 1 and 2 but at nearly 1/2 the price of home #1 it's got to be a wake up call for those guys. This is listed at $329K or $110 sq/ft. Not a bad price for a nearly 3000 sq/ft home if the bank approves it.


There is also an REO listed for $379k at 26600 SAFFRON, the same model as the one above. This has granite in the kitchen and what appears to be a guest house or some such. This one is also priced below original builder sales price of $391k and way below the $520 it went for in 2006.

All these homes are in the same tract and there are loads more of them. All the newer tracts seem to be suffering the same disease, rash of for sale signs. We can see the sellers here are delusional but the banks seem to be coming to their senses. At $110 a sq/ft is home #3 a good deal? Will the bank let it go that cheap? Only time will tell.

Comp Killer, $80k below 2004 price

1819 Morfontaine, Corona
4 bed/2 bath, 2413 sq/ft single story on 8700 sq/ft lot in the Eagle Glen Community.
Asking price is $450k

Sale History
11/17/2006:	$550,000
05/13/2004:	$529,500

Looks like a flip gone bad. The seller is going to lose 100K plus Realtor fees of around $27k. In addition to that he remodeled the kitchen so the total loss in just under a year is going to be around $150k. The new asking price is also $75k under the 2004 sales price. This is actually a nice looking house and considering the area and the price, it should sell.

But it is going to make the neighbor's place a little hard to move. 1795 Riverstone is the same model on a slightly larger lot but they are asking $619k (only 169K more). But the home does not look as nice inside as home #1 does.

Sale History
08/28/2007:	$587,032
08/21/2006:	$779,000
06/10/2004:	$540,000

This home has seen some wild price swings. It looks like our current owner is just trying to escape without losing anything. His asking price will just get him out after he pays commissions.
Of course with home #1 setting the bar $169K lower I'd say he's completely screwed.


Look at the sales prices of these two homes for a moment. Both sell for about the same price in 2004. Then in 08/2006, house 2 sells for $779k. In 11/2006 our unlucky flipper picks up home number 1 for $550k, what must have seemed like a steal. After all the same model just sold for $779 only 3 months before. But then home #2 drops nearly $200k in a year. That must have made our unlucky flipper's head spin. Now both homes are back on the market again. The $450 price seems good but I think these should be selling for mid 300's tops.

Hitting the house lotto in Corona

Some buyers were lucky enough to make big scores in the Eagle Glen Community in Corona. They bought, held for 2 years, sold and doubled their money. Personally I think there was some fraud on a couple of sales that just sent the comps into orbit. Even in the bubblicious IE it's hard to imagine a $500k house selling for over a million only 2 years after purchasing it.

Here's a few examples of what I'm talking about.

1572 Vandagriff Way Corona CA 92883
3 beds, 3.75 baths, 3,695 sq ft;

Sold new in 2003 or 2004 for approx $400k (2004 tax based on $408,653)
Sold on 05/21/2004: $829,000

How does a $400k tract home in Corona appreciate approx $430k in less than 2 years?

1544 Vandagriff Way Corona CA 92883
5 beds, 4.5 baths, 4,531 sq ft

Sold new in 2003 or 2004 for approx $600k (2004 tax based on $603k)
It sells on 06/27/2005 for $1,175,000
Then again on 05/23/2007 for $1,200,000

This $600k tract home in Corona appreciate approx $575k in less than 2 years? Owner number 1 hits the house lottery!

1537 Vandagriff Way Corona CA 92883
Same plan as above, 5 beds, 4.5 baths, 4,531 sq ft

Sold new in 2003 or 2004 for approx $540k (2004 tax based on $540k)
It sells on 07/07/2005 for $1,065,000
Then again on 06/29/2007 for $1,135,000

This lottery winner collects over $600k in less than 2 years?

1553 Vandagriff Way Corona CA 92883
4 beds, 4.0 baths, 3,829 sq ft;

Sold new in 2003 or 2004 for approx $550k (2004 tax based on $555k)

07/29/ 2005: $975,000
08/17/2006: $1,010,000

This original owner wins the lottery and collects over $400k in less than 2 years?
Buyer #2 holds for a year and probably sells at a loss after fees.

Pricing mayhem in Corona

How do sellers and realtors come up with the prices on some of these homes. I'm beginning to think they spin a big wheel with numbers on it just like on "The Price is Right". Well folks, as Happy Gilmore said "the price is wrong"!

For fun, let's look at 2 similar homes on Sanctuary Dr. in Corona.

Home #1, 8113 Sanctuary Dr is a 3760 sq/ft 5 bed 5 1/2 bath home on an 11,330 sq/ft lot. Looks like a nice home although it's hard to tell from the photos. They look like they were taken with a cell phone. I kick the crap out of my realtor if I saw photos like that on my listing. This home is listed as a pre-foreclosure at $799k

Home #2, 8155 Sanctuary Dr is the same 3760 sq/ft home but this one is a 4 bed 5 bath version on a similar sized lot. The photo's are only slightly better than home #1s. This one is going to be a little hard to move at it's listed price of $1,044,000. That's $245k more than 8133 which has sat on the market since July. This realtor, in addition to pricing for the moon, cannot find the time to use the spell checker. What the hell is a "gulf course"?

Here's 3 more on Lady Banks Loop, and these are even more lopsided.

Home #1, 7225 Lady Banks is a 4 bed 5 bath, 4142 sq/ft home on a 9147 sq/ft lot. No pictures other than a street shot of the front. This home is listed for $830k and it looks like it just went on the market (18 days)

Home #2 is 1809 Lady Banks is the same model. Heck it looks like the same home from the street pictures. Something funny going on here. This thing has been on the market for 164 days and it;s no wonder considering it's listed at $1.35M. That's $520k more than Home #1.

But wait we have another wishful thinker on this block. Home #3, 7669 Lady Banks is the same model home. The realtor says it has too many features to list. And he apparently does not have any time to take a few pics of them either. One shot of the garage and two shots of the front are all you get. This one has taken root it's been on the market so long. You'de think after 180 days on the market they would get a clue that the price is wrong. This one is asking $1.389M which puts it $559k more than Home #1.

Corona in free fall

I've been looking around Trilogy golf club at homes. There are loads for sale and the race to the bottom seems to be on. Let's take a look at Cantara rd. There are 34 homes on Cantara and I found 4 for sale, so just over 10% of the street is for sale.

23672 Cantara Rd is a 3103, 4/3 near the golf course. It looks to be a failed flip. Last purchased for $575k back in April. It's already back on the market for $493,850. That's an 82K loss in 5 months! Nearly 200K from peak in 2005

Currently on the market for $493,850
04/20/2007: $575,089
08/31/2005: $689,000
10/16/2003: $459,000

The neighbor with the same plan at 23700 Cantara is already under cutting this flop by a few dollars though. His is listed for $479,000, $166k less than he paid for it only 2 short years ago (ouch).

This is gonna make 23518 Cantara a little hard to sell at $579,000. Especially since it's 500 sq/ft smaller. These appear to be the original owners though so they may still be able to escape without losing much if they can lower the price.

23602 Cantara is also for sale at $590k. This one is the same 2665 sq/ft plan as 23518 Cantara. It does have a pool but at $100k more than the two larger homes I don't see much hope. They've already reduced the price from $645. This is another original owner so they should be able to get out if they price accordingly (and have not heloc'd all the equity out).

Here lies 4 properties on one street in the Trilogy community. There are many, many others.