Another one nearly 50% off

I found another tract that is imploding. This one is called The Boulders and it's up near Lake Mathews. Technically this tract is in Perris but it's a lot closer to the Woodcrest area of Riverside than it is to Perris. This is another horse property type tract of large homes on large lots. Most of the lots are 1/2 acre but there are a few that are an acre or more.

18573 Malkoha ST, Perris, CA 92570

My 50% off home is on one of the biggest lots at 1.33 acres in size. The home is a large single story home, 3370 sq/ft with 5 bedrooms and 3 baths. Not exactly the most attractive home from the front. In fact it looks more like a manufactured home. Our current owners bought this from the builder in April of 2006 for a whopping $728k. There must have been home helluva lot premium. They did add some upgrades, from the few pics I can see upgraded cabinets and granite counters. They are now trying to unload this turkey for $375k. That is a whopping 48.3% decline.



This tract currently has 10 homes for sale under $400k. Most of them are smaller than our turkey and they are on smaller lots. So the price declines are not as impressive. Most of them sold new in the high 400s to high 500s so the price declines are running closer to 30%.

Retarted bank of the week

It was looking like the banks were getting the hang of this REO problem. But then today I ran across this listing.

17864 Glen Hollow WAY, Riverside, CA 92504, this is the smallest home in the Bridle Creek development up in the Woodcrest area of Riverside. This home is a 3 bedroom, bath home, it's 2898 sq/ft and sits on an acre lot. The home looks alright but the lot is still basically dirt. This home sold new in 2005 for $699k. The bank got it back and they listed it yesterday for $614k.

Now the reason I'm a little confused by this listing is that there is another REO of the same model in this tract. That home, 17008 Birch Hill RD has been for sale since July. It started out at $699 if I remember right and they've been lowering it ever since. It's down to $529k after sitting at $545k for over a month. This home has some landscaping done, including a patio slab and BBQ. It also sits on a larger lot at 1.21 acres. So if they cannot sell this home at $529k how did the other bank figure they had a chance at $85k more.

A couple of months ago in this tract there was only one home under $700k. That home was our REO here on Birch Hill Rd. Today there are 12 homes under $700k, and of those 9 are under $650 with our REO as the prices leader at $529k. I betting on these hitting $400k in a year or two. So far these price leaders are only down about 20% to 30% below the price paid from the builder.

Norco Hills, that Kaboom continues

I love this area, it provides me with hours of entertainment. Every time I look in this area there's another batch of dueling neighbors trying to unload their horribly overpriced homes.

Today I noticed a home I had looked at previously had come way down in price.

209 Cross Rail LN, Norco, CA 92860 is a massive 5659 sq/ft 6 bedroom home. It sits on a 1/2 acre lot and backs up to the 15th hole of the Hidden Valley Golf Course. This home was purchased new in 2005 for $943K. It sold again in Nov 2006 for 1.25 million. It listed 3 months ago for 1.3 million. In early December they reduced the price to 1 million and recently reduced it again to $850k. That's a $400K loss in just over a year if they can find a buyer. This home is still very expensive but at $150 sq/ft it's the $ sq/ft price leader in this area. Most of the other homes are listed over $200 and some are still dreaming of $300 sq/ft.



Now what about those dueling neighbors. The first upset neighbor is right across the street at 200 Crossrail LN. They bought the same model new in early 2005 and paid 1 million. They have put in a spectacular pool and the back yard is party ready. The home though does not look any nicer than the first one. These are both high end homes with very nice interiors. This guy listed his 5 months ago for the staggering price of 1.675 million! Here's his dream slipping away.

Price Reduced: 08/27/07 -- $1,675,000 to $1,495,000
Price Reduced: 09/24/07 -- $1,495,000 to $1,395,000
Price Reduced: 11/14/07 -- $1,395,000 to $1,345,000
Price Reduced: 12/05/07 -- $1,345,000 to $1,275,000

After what his neighbor has done his dream must have turned into a nightmare by now. Getting undercut by $425k can't help you sleep at night.



But wait 200 Crossrail is not the only upset seller in this tract. Just around the corner and only about 5 homes away we have 1492 ANDALUSIAN DR (same model home). This guy listed two months ago for 1.5 million. He is currently down to 1.25 million. Just $400K more than home one. He does have some very nice landscaping in the front but no pictures of the back yard so I will assume it's not very impressive. Th inside of this home does not look as highly upgraded as the first two. There's way more carpet and less tile work and the master bathroom looks rather basic. So this guy is doubly screwed



There are two other dreamers trying to sell the same model home in this tract. Both of those homes have been featured before. 170 Friesian ST is currently asking 1.348 Million and the biggest dreamer of them all is 159 Friesian ST who is asking 1.4 million for a home with dirt in the front and the back yards.

Is 209 Cross Rail a deal at $850k? Compared to the other 4 similar homes currently on the market it is. At $150 sq/ft this home appears to be priced well. Is this home a short sale? The listing does not indicate that this is a short sale but it's hard to believe the home owner would be so quick to throw away that $400k. Most people would hold out for as long as possible if it was their own $400k. Regardless if whether it's a short sale or not, they are obviously not selling at the higher prices. This home might be worth $850k. It's interior looks high end, it's big and on a big lot and it has golf course frontage. I almost think this is a good deal if you are in the market for a 5659 sq/ft palace.

For prices it's a new year, and that's 2001

2003 price roll backs are getting too easy to find. I thought I'd be a little more ambitious and look for 2002 rollbacks. I decided I would take a look to the south since I don't go down there much. I looked in Lake Elsinore, Wildomar, Murrieta and the surrounding areas. Surprisingly I found some and even more surprisingly I found some 2001 price rollbacks.

31669 Canyon Ridge DR, Lake Elsinore, CA 92532, this 4 bed/2.5 bath home was sold in mid 2001 for $260k, again in 2003 for $325, again in 2004 for $425 and it's for sale again in 2008 for....back.... back....back in time we go to 2001. It's for sale for $275k! Right back to 2001 prices.

23065 Empire Penguin RD, Wildomar, CA 92595, this 4 bedroom home with a nice pool was built in 2002 and sold for $310k. In addition to the pool it has a "Gormet, built-in barbeque", gawd I love illiterate realtors. But I digress, today you can buy it for $290k. $20k less than it sold for in 2002.

35381 Perla PL Wildomar, CA 92595, is a nice looking 3/3 home that's just over 3000 s/f. This one sold new for $249k in 2001. Today it appears to be bank owned and you can get it for $295 ($97 s/f). That would probably put it back to early 2002 prices.

40139 WHITE LEAF LN, Murrieta, CA 92562. I listed this one just for fun. This home was built in 1989 and sold new for $238k (Murrieta and Temecula were actually on the spendy side back in the late 80's compared to Corona and Riverside). Today you can buy this home for $61k more than is sold for 18 years ago. That equates to an annual rate of appreciation of 1.25%. Now do you believe the NAR when they say "Real Estate is you best investment". ONE POINT TWO FIVE PERCENT over the last 18 years. AND, that is assuming they sell it for the $299k it's listed for. It would not take much of a discount to wipe out that paltry 1.25% gain. Looking at the pics this home looks old and dirty inside so I would not put any money on them fetching the asking price.

I found about a dozen of these 2001/2002 rollbacks without looking too hard. Makes you wonder just how far back the prices will go.

49% OFF in MoVal

15635 Turnberry ST Moreno Valley, CA 92555 is a 2819 sq/ft 3 bedroom/3 bath home that sits on the 6th hole of the Lake 9 at Moreno Valley Ranch. I looked at these homes back in the mid 90's and nearly bought one in this tract. These were very nice homes with good floor plans. This home was sold last in November 2006 for $540K. Today it's offered by the bank for $276k. That is soooo close to 50% off I can taste it. Technically it's 48.9999999 % off the last sale price on 13 short months ago. This home should sell, at that price you should be able to rent that home and make a few dollars. It would not surprise me to see this get a few offers.

SCPGA community in Beaumont goes KABOOM

In early October I took a look at the homes around the new SCPGA Golf Course in Beaumont. This was intended to be a new "upscale" community. In October there were some serious declines but the lowest priced homes were still over $400K. I don't recall seeing anything listed under $400k when I searched in October. Today is a different story, there are nearly 20 homes under $400k and about 1/2 of them are around $300k.

I found 7 homes listed under $300K, with the price leader being

35593 Trevino TRL, Beaumont, CA 92223 listed for $259k ($98 s/f). It looks like this was bought new in March 2006 for $464. Pick it up today at 44% off!



There are another 13 between $300k and $350k. The price leader in this range is 37137 Brutus WAY, with a price of $349 it barely made it but at 3934 s/f it works out to $89 s/f. This is an even newer home sold in June 2006 for $518k. Pick it up today at 33% off.



There are another 17 homes priced from $350 to $400K. This is not the best deal as far as the numbers go but I'de probably pick 36010 Eagle LN as the best deal in this group. It's a nice single story on a 1/3 acre lot and it has a very nice pool and hot tub. Not bad for $395 if it were anywhere but Beaumont. This home sold new for $579 in April of 2005. Pick it up today at 32% off




All of these homes have lost approx $200k (plus any upgrades, like the $60k pool) in a year or two. With the price leaders under $100 s/f and one under $90 s/f we can see where Beaumont is heading. Prices out there will be well under $100 s/f before long.

Builder goes KABOOM (bankrupt)

A few posts ago I wrote about the dangers of buying new homes in markets like this. It seems I'm clairvoyant, see this article in the New York Times today. Levitt & Sons, a unit of the Levitt Corporation, which ran out of cash in October and declared bankruptcy in November leaving a half built development and a lot of angry customers and unpaid subs.

Corona Hills goes KABOOM

Up in the hills of Corona, when it's real quiet, if you close your eyes and listen very carefully you can hear the sounds of people crying. One such person lives at,

3311 Quartz CRK, Corona, CA 92882. He purchased his dream home in November of 2005 for $869k. He quickly tired of the home or a more likely scenario is that his reset was approaching. He lists it for $895k back in May, hoping to escape without losing too much. It was not to be however, and after a few price cuts he is down to $815k. Poor fella, what's making him cry though?



Well, it could be 3350 Cashel LN, Corona, CA 92882. This home is just around the corner and it's now listed as an REO for....drumroll please........$530k! This home sold in late 2006 for $890k, the bank got it back a short 11 months later for $760k. I'm guessing 1st payment default on this one. This home, if it sells at $530 will have dropped $360K in just over a year. That's 41% in one year!



As if that was not enough there is another home of similar specs in the same tract up for sale.

1160 Athlone LN, Corona, CA 92882. If this one is not a REO it will be soon. The listing wreaks of desperation. This one is listed at $579k, that puts him $235k less than home #1. This one's not as nice looking as the REO for $530 so he is also going to have to drop the price some more. (nice pics btw Mr. Realtor)

Now to be fair home #1 is a nicer house inside and it does have a pool. But how much is some fancy tile counters and a pool worth? Certainly not $300K! Besides, you have to knock off some money for the freakin barbie pink bedroom. This guy paid $870k in late 2005 and today the comps are listed in the mid 500s. OUCH! These homes sold in the High 600s when new in 2004. I think we can safely assume these are back to 2003 values.

Happy New Year!

Golfer-X wishes everyone a happy new year!

46% off and counting in Canyon Crest

6060 SPEYSIDE, Riverside, CA 92507 is a REO in the Canyon Crest area of Riverside. Actually, I'm not 100% sure this still qualifies as Canyon Crest. It's in the homes behind Raceway Ford up near the 215/60 junction (up near MoVal).

This 2962 s/f, 4 bedroom/3 bath home was built in 2001 and sold for $277,500. 5 years later it sells again for the unbelievable price of 1.1 million! I find myself shocked and amazed at that selling price. Yes, this house is on a large lot and it probably has a nice view but 1.1 milllion dollars for an average sized tract house in Canyon Crest. Of course the outcome of this transaction is all too obvious.... the bank took it back in October. They have it listed for $599,000. That's a whopping 1/2-million dollar loss in a year (or a 46% loss).

I can't believe this is not another case of mortgage fraud. Zilow has most of the homes on this street estimated at between 500K and 600K and we all know how accurate Zillows estimates are. Even at $600k this home is seriously overpriced. At $100 s/ft this home would be under $300k, I'll give him another $100k for the big lot ( 3/4 acre) and that is still under $400k which is what I think this home is going to end up being worth in a year or two.

Delusional seller of the year award

This home is the epitome of what is wrong with this market. It has a delusional seller asking a ridiculous price and it has been listed by illiterate Realtor that should have smacked the seller in the head when he heard his asking price.

The award for the most delusional seller in the IE goes to the guy trying to sell

5272 Dood ST, Mira Loma, CA 91752. Dood st... As in DOOD you are high if you think your house has gone up 544% since 1999.

This home almost qualifies as a real homes of genius award winner in addition to the delusional seller award. The home look like it was decorated as part of a haunted house or possibly a tacky 1960s theme restaurant. We can also give the Realtor (JAVIER ALVAREZ) an honorable mention for the ridiculous description. I've highlighted the spelling errors for your amusement.
"BEAUTIFULL RANCH STYLE HORSE PROPERTY WITH ANOTHER APN NUMBER ATTACH WITH THIS LISTING PRICE IT WILL WELCOME YOUR BUYERS TO A FORMAL LIVING & DINNING ROOMS LARGE KITCHEN WITH CUSTOMED TILED COUNTER TOPS, SPACIOUS MASTER BEDROOM WITH FILIGREE CARVED WOOD ENTRANCE DOOR, FULL BATHROOM AND WALKING CLOSET. 2 MORE BEDROOMS AND A SEND FULL BATHROM. THIS LOVELY HOME WILL ACCOMODATE YOUR GUESS IN A PRIVATE ENTRANCE TO A ONE BEDROOM FULL BATHROOM LIVING ROOM WITH A FIRE PLACE, IT ALSO HAS A NICE POOL AND A CAPILLA. THERE ARE 3 HOUSE BARNS STABLES"

All Caps, a multitude of spelling and grammatical errors and then there are the colorful exaggerations. Beautiful ranch style? What part exactly is beautiful? This lovely house will accommodate my GUESS (I guess I have no idea what he is talking about). What the hell is a "3 house barns stables"? I assume he means that there are two units and a barn but then again I don't speak realtor. That sure is a nice pool too, with its au naturale green water.



This guy picked up this gem in 1999 for $146k. Now, 8 years later he thinks this POS has gone up a whopping 544%. That works out to $81K per year. Who needs to work when your house is earning $81k per year? I would not even offer $146k for this thing today. It's a gaudy mess in a terrible area that is polluted by the Stringfellow acid pits. Not only do you have to fear for your life but your kids might grow another set of limbs. If none of that matters to you then you can pick up this little piece of heaven for $795k.

The danger in buying new

As the housing market continues to decline more and more builders will start to offer discounts and incentives to move their homes. Many of these deals will surely entice buyers to take the plunge and purchase a home. Buying a new home does seem like a great way to go. After all, everything is new. You don't have to worry about the water heater exploding or a termite infestation. But don't get all googley-eyed, a new home purchase can be just as risky and in today's market it can be far more risky than buying an existing home.

Home builders will do whatever makes financial sense for the company. If that means packing up and leaving a development 1/2 built then that's what they will do. When that happens you can find yourself surrounded by empty weed filled lots and half finished streets (or worse).

Smaller builders might not make it. If your builder goes belly up, you can find yourself with a worthless warranty. Any problems with the home are now your problem. If you're home is half finished when the builder goes BK you could lose your deposit money.

Builders can change the home mix in a development. They might start off building 3000 s/f mini mansions in a supposed "upscale" development but if those stop selling you might find that they suddenly start building 1200 s/f starter homes. They can turn a townhome or condo block into apartments.

All of the above scenarios happened in the 90's bust. In fact the tract right across the street from me saw the builder go bankrupt and leave about a dozen homes 1/2 built. If you are looking to buy new I would stick with a larger builder. Try to find a development that is in it's final phase or close to being finished. I would avoid any new, large developments like the plague.