The big drop and some MLS hanky panky

Here's a perfect bubble poster child and possibly some MLS hanky panky. It's nothing criminal but it looks like this guy as no intention of selling this house.

17939 Timberview up in Bridle Creek was purchased right at the peak and actually closed just as the crash was starting. The home was built in 2006 but didn't close until Jan 2007. This poor fella dropped a cool $1,000,000 on this house. That's right a million dollars. Alright technically he probably dropped nothing other than his signature on some loan docs. Some idiot lender dropped $1M on this thing. He must have upgraded everything as this floorplan was "only" selling for around $800k. There's no landscaping to speak of but he poured enough concrete to build a runway.

Fast forward 3 years and he lists it in May as a short sale for $392k. So a 60% drop in value in 3 years. The price might seem like a good deal for a home in this tract, but for this floor plan with no landscaping that's actually pretty close. If it's highly upgraded inside he probably has it listed a little on the low side. The comps for that floor plan range from $375k to $450k. I actually put an offer in on the $45ok house. That one was spectacular though. All upgraded inside and out with a pool and Viking appliances.

But here's were this listing is questionable. It lists for a day and then goes on hold for a month. I'm not sure what's going on here but it seems like someone is playing games with a bank.

Jan 02, 2011	Relisted (Active)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Dec 20, 2010	Delisted (Hold)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Dec 20, 2010	Relisted (Active)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Dec 07, 2010	Delisted (Hold)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Dec 06, 2010	Relisted (Active)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Nov 11, 2010	Delisted (Hold)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Nov 10, 2010	Relisted (Active)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Oct 05, 2010	Delisted (Hold)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Oct 05, 2010	Relisted (Active)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Sep 25, 2010	Delisted (Hold)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Sep 25, 2010	Relisted (Active)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Sep 01, 2010	Delisted (Hold)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Sep 01, 2010	Relisted (Active)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Aug 17, 2010	Delisted (Hold)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Aug 15, 2010	Relisted (Active)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Jul 26, 2010	Delisted (Hold)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Jul 21, 2010	Relisted (Active)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Jun 09, 2010	Delisted (Hold)		--	--	CARETS #P738448
Jun 08, 2010	Listed (Active)		$392,000	--	CARETS #P738448

And one more to start off the new year.

Here's a tale of two foreclosures. Unfortunately it's on the same house. As the crow flies this house is probably about a mile from the Bridle Creek house. That mile and a different zip code makes this house worth about $100k less though. 19159 Eldorado is over in "the boulders" off Cajalco and Wood streets. This is technically Perris although it's actually no where near Perris. It's Perris in zip code only. Like most of the homes in this area this tract has large homes on large lots. Horsey properties or folks with lotsa toys buy these. This house was built in 2005 and sold for $523k. In July of 2008 the bank too the home back and it was sold a few months later for $310k. These people probably didn't put much money into this deal as it was foreclosed on again in May 2010. They could not have made very many payments to end up foreclosed on only 20 months after purchasing. The amount the lender was seeking at the trustee sale was actually $25k more than the purchase price. I guess they were actually trying to recoup those late fees and back payments. Now it's for sale again. You can pick this baby up for the bargain price of $280k. That's not too shabby for a newer 3000 s/f, 5 bedroom home on a 1/2 acre lot.

Happy New Year
X

From the "what were ya thinking" files

If you were even only slightly paying attention you should have been aware of the bubble popping sometime in early 07. By then the sales of homes had ground to a halt and prices were starting to fall. The had already been falling for a year or more in Sand Diego and up in the Bay area. The problem for some folks was they were listening to the propaganda that the NAR and CAR were putting out about the median price still rising. That's true, technically it was still rising but only because sales of low to mid priced homes had all but stopped.

What amazed me was that a few people were still paying near peak prices. They were still buying new homes in the IE for crazy prices. I remember looking at the homes back then, heck I still have some of the brochures. I figured they'd be collectors items some day. My grand kids will never believe me when I tell them houses in Riverside were a million dollars in 2006.

Here a perfect example of one of the folks that didn't take the time to open the paper or research the internet before making the most important purchase of their life. 827 Valleverde Way, Perris. This house is built RIGHT BELOW the Lake Perris dam. Yes the one they found to be flawed and may collapse in a 7.5 earthquake! These homes were built in 2007 and this particular one was turned over to our oblivious home owners in April 07. The 3461 s/f house has 5 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms. It sold new for $450k, quite a deal at the time as the homes in MoVal, jsut up the street were closer to $600k. Might had something to do with the risk of being swept away??? Anyway, the owners eventually get the message, or the loan reset or unelmployment etc... Whatever the reason it's now listed as a short sale for $235k. Nearly 1/2 off and probably priced around market value given the comps. By the way, what a crapping listing Mr, Dave Scott! 130 days on market and one picture is all you can manage. Not to mention there isn't a single word to describe the home. Nothing, zip, nada! (well at least he didn't misspell anything) Another realtor that gets an F for effort.

A whole year!

19126 Hawkhill Ave, in Perris was foreclosed on lat year, August 2008 to be exact. It's just now hitting the market! It took the lender a whole year to get this property on the market.

Now I don't know the particulars of this property. It could be that they were tied up evicting a renter or the previous debtor or some other problem. But regardless of what the problem was, a year seems like a awfully long time between when a foreclosure happens and the property hitting the market.

Now the price on the home isn't too bad. At $96 s/f you get a large single story on a half acre. Yes the address says Perris but it's not "really" Perris. This home is up near Lake Mathews. The problem is that this particular tract is a little too close to Mead Valley. And Mead Valley is the meth capitol of the IE. The home is nearly 3000 s/f it has 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. It was purchased new in early 2005 for $414k. Then flipped 4 months later for $555k. That's not a bad deal eh? $140k profit in 4 months.... The bank took it back in Aug 2008, tried to get $290k at the auction but there were no takers. Now they have it listed for $258k.

When upgrades go too far

In the heady days of the real estate boom the fastest way to maximize your profit was to upgrade. High end appliances, travertine, granite, and fancy landscaping were all used to maximize profits. But how much is too much? Well here's your answer:

Marble tile on the garage floor is TOO MUCH!

And layed at a 45 too! with a fancy beveled edge to boot. What the hell was this guy thinking. How many people want a marble floor in the garage?

This home is near Lake Mathews up near woodcrest/Orangecrest but unfortunately the address is in Perris. This takes the value of this home down about $150K or more. Homes over in the 90504 zip of Riverside sell for a lot more than this home will even though it's only a mile away.

This home was bought in 2005 for $631k. It's a 5 bedroom, 3 bath home, 3725 sq/ft sitting on just over an acre of well manicured land. Gawd knows how much this guys spend on upgrades. Some of the stuff is awesome. The kitchen counters are beautiful the cabinets look low end, in the pics but I'm sure there not though). The bathroom looks like a suite at the Ballagio. They even put marble tile on the stairs. It's over the top gawdy in some respects. Actually in most respects. It makes me want to speculate that a realtor owns it!

Anyway if you want this marble palace it's offered as a short sale for $450K. The price is not that bad considering the home. Some of it would need to be toned down a bit for those of us not used to living in a marble palace. Unfortunately I think the zip code is gonna hurt him. That and the fact its a short sale.....

Left the appliances, took the garage door

Now I've seen a lot of things taken from foreclosures but this is a first for me.

These people left the usual stuff like the stove and microwave, but they took the garage door? Who takes a garage door and leaves a stove?

Well, it's in Perris so I guess nothing should surprise me. If you're interested in a house with a ...a...a Carport, yea that's it we'll call it a carport, you can have it for $189k.

Something for Everyone

This one for $925k??

"Something for everyone" according to the realtard of the week. If "something" is a price about 3 times what it should be then yes I suppose it is something for everyone.

19471 Killdeer Ct in Perris is a large home on a large lot in "The Boulders" development up near Lake Mathews. This home is a large single story, 3370 sq.ft, sitting on an acre and a half. The home is nothing special. The cabinets look builder grade, if my eyes don't decieve me, that looks like lino in the kitchen. The bathroom.......well, it has CARPET, need I say more? It does have grass in the back and a small patio but other than that the lanscaping is rather weak. The owner bought this place in jan, 2006 for $634k and after a couple of years he thinks it has increase nearly $300k in value??? WTF dude, have ya read a paper lately, turned on the TV or cruised the net? He just listed for $925k. Man. what a desperate tool the realtor must be to take this listing.

For comparison the nearest comp (identical home) is 18915 Malkoha st. This home at least has a few upgrades. Tile in the bathroom, tile in the kitchen and the appliances look better too. So what, there is no grass in the yard, but it's $537k CHEAPER! This home also sold new in Jan 2006, but it sold for $709k. Must have been the upgrades, this house does look nicer in the pictures. It's an REO now and the asking price for this model match hoome $388k. In addition to this REO there is a short sale at 18774 Malkoha that is the same model home as these two and it is listed for $380k.

Or this for $388K

A look at the Villages of Avalon

The Villages of Avalon is the development below the Dam at Lake Perris. I've posted several blurbs on homes in this development selling at "rental" prices. Just for giggles I searched for homes under $200k. In this one development I got 50 hits with many of them being well under $200k. In fact 21 of them were under $175k, and 2 of them were under $150k.

1240 Lilac Rd is one of the 2 houses priced at $149k. This is a perfect small starter home or rental property. It is 1200 s/f and has 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The last sale on this house was $310k in Sept 05 (at least a year before the peak). Now you can pick it up for $149k or there abouts, depending on the offers. The loss is over 50% on this house from the last sale and if it had sold during the summer of 06 the loss would probably be closer to 60%.

May Ranch $78 sq/ft

Who was it that wanted a house in May Ranch under $200k?

Here's a nice one, I expect this will get a few offers.

3272 El Nido Ave this is a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home, 2296 sq/ft in size. it says it was built in 2004. The home looks to be in really good shape (not vandalized or anything). The original selling price is not listed but the tax value is $384k so it probably sold for about 10% under that. It's listed for $179,900, or $78 sq/ft. This should pencil out as a rental if you can get it for close to the asking price.

A few do make sense

There are a few homes starting to appear that could actually be good buys versus renting. So far these are in the outer areas of the IE, but even so they would still probably be cheaper (or close to it) to buy that to rent an equivalent house.

I found 4 (all bank owned) in the tract that sits below the dam holding back Lake Perris. The last time I drove through this tract it looked quite nice. It's all fairly new with a fancy entrance gate, nice parks and landscaping. It's in a handy location right off the Ramona Expressway with easy access to the 215 fwy. Probably not a bad place to live for a young family. Of course this assumes you don't mind living below a dam holding back a huge lake. A dam, that by the way they are worried about failing if there is ever a 7.5 earthquake. Since there is a major fault line running through the badlands just a few miles east of the lake, I'd say a big earthquake is a distinct possibility. Because of this flaw in the dam they reduced the level of the lake last year. And they are STILL building homes right below that sucker! But the biggest problem is that this area is foreclosure central.

Anyway back to the houses. To rent a decent 3 bedroom home in that area is about $1500/mo. These 4 homes are all listed under $225k. That would give a payment of roughly 1150/mo assuming 210k financed at 5.5%. Add in some property tax ($200/mo), insurance ($150/mo) and you end up at roughly $1500/mo. Now being a homeowner you get to write off that interest which would net you some tax savings. That would reduce the net cost by about $225/mo. That savings would cover maintenance and the $80/mo HOA fee. So these properties are very close to being a wash versus renting. The big "IF" is that IF the property values continue to decline then you would be losing money. I doubt you could buy these and make any money renting them unless you put a fair amount down but someone could buy these and live in them for about the same cost as renting. You gotta ask yourself, do you feel lucky. Well, do ya punk? Feel like betting those prices won't drop anymore?

Here are the homes,

1739 Benedetto, 4 bedroom, 2.75 bath, 2252 sqft. Purchased for $305k in June 2004. Now listed for $209k ($93 sq/ft) (Being a 4 bedroom this house might rent for more that $1500)



1449 Avila Dr, 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2677 sqft. Purchased for $385k June 2006. Now listed for $215K ($80 sq/ft)



3275 El Nido pl, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2296 sq/ft. Purchased for $396 in Nov 2006. Now listed for $207k (90 sq/ft). A 48% loss in 16 months



2054 Mount Verdugo, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2731 sq/ft, Purchased for $435k in June 2006. Now listed for $221k ($81 sq/ft). That is a 49% drop in 18 months! This is a nice looking house, too bad it's in Perris. Again I doubt you could rent this home for $1500. It's 4 bedrooms and fairly large. This one would probably rent for closer to $2k, making buying it far cheaper than renting it. From the pics the house looks nice but the last owners did take the stove and dishwasher with them. The rest of the house looks good in the pics.

Another one nearly 50% off

I found another tract that is imploding. This one is called The Boulders and it's up near Lake Mathews. Technically this tract is in Perris but it's a lot closer to the Woodcrest area of Riverside than it is to Perris. This is another horse property type tract of large homes on large lots. Most of the lots are 1/2 acre but there are a few that are an acre or more.

18573 Malkoha ST, Perris, CA 92570

My 50% off home is on one of the biggest lots at 1.33 acres in size. The home is a large single story home, 3370 sq/ft with 5 bedrooms and 3 baths. Not exactly the most attractive home from the front. In fact it looks more like a manufactured home. Our current owners bought this from the builder in April of 2006 for a whopping $728k. There must have been home helluva lot premium. They did add some upgrades, from the few pics I can see upgraded cabinets and granite counters. They are now trying to unload this turkey for $375k. That is a whopping 48.3% decline.



This tract currently has 10 homes for sale under $400k. Most of them are smaller than our turkey and they are on smaller lots. So the price declines are not as impressive. Most of them sold new in the high 400s to high 500s so the price declines are running closer to 30%.

Homes for under $200K

I saw a post on Dr Housing Bubble about a shack in Riverside that was close to $200k. It got me thinking, are there any decent homes for under $200K in the IE. I was actually a little shocked at what I found. There's friggin plenty of them! Some you could actually buy and probably rent with positive cash flow.

In MoVal a decent 3 bedroom home rents for around $1300/mo to $1500/mo. Can you purchase a home for less than that? Amazingly enough in MoVal you can!

Here's a few in a decent area of the city. There are plenty of them in the scary areas of MoVal but these are in areas of the city that are fairly safe.

26463 Dracaea, Moreno Valley, CA 92555, this is a typical late 80s tract home 1322 sq/ft and 3 bedrooms, 2 baths. It's a nice looking home and is listed for $189K. a 30 year fixed at 7% with 10% down will get you into this home for about $1100 a mo. Add another $150/mo for property tax and you can probably rent this and make a few bucks.

13186 Pocono, Moreno Valley, CA 92555, Another late 80's tract home in the same area. This is another 3/2 about the same size for $180K. Again this looks like you could actually buy it and rent it without losing money.

25256 Sweetgrass, Moreno Valley, CA 92553, One more of the same but only 2 bedrooms on this one. It's listed for $169K. I think you could actually buy this with 10% down and have a payment UNDER $1000/mo! Of course 2 berooms only rent for around $1200/mo so as a rental you are on the edge with this one.

1075 Alderwood Perris, CA 92571, this is a newer home in Perris and is a 1663sq/ft 3 bed 3 bath. Listed as a short sale for $180K (108 sq/ft). If this home were to sell at this price that would be a 54% drop from the last sale in Jan 2006.

I'm certainly not recommending that anyone go on a buying spree just yet. I think in a year the choices will be far better in this price range.