Larry Roberts real estate writing blog

Monday, October 12, 2015

OCHN: Future home equity gains from amortization rather than appreciation

When mortgage rates are low but rising, equity growth comes through amortization rather than appreciation.

Equity is the cash value stored in a owner’s house. Many people assume equity is the difference between what a house is worth and what they owe on it, but this overstates the reality...
Future home equity gains from amortization rather than appreciation

Saturday, October 10, 2015

OCHN: Los Angeles County Housing Market Report: October 2015

Historically, properties in this market sell at a 9.5% discount. Today’s discount is 12.8%. This market is 3.3% undervalued.
Median home price is $510,000 with a rental parity value of $590,000. This market’s discount is $80,000.
Monthly payment affordability has been worsening over...
Los Angeles County Housing Market Report: October 2015

Friday, October 9, 2015

Debt Default: The Eminent Domain of mortgages proposal is rearing it"s ugly head again

What was the tagline for Jaws 2? “Just when you thought it was safe to get back into the water”. Eminent Domain is the seizing of private property at market rates for public use for example roads, schools, and other infrastructure. Robert Shiller is to my surprise, a proponent of u...
The Eminent Domain of mortgages proposal is rearing it"s ugly head again

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OCHN: Homeownership is dead

The hopes for a recovery in the homeownership rate fade as people forming new households choose to rent instead.

For over 100 years, government administration policy favored homeownership. Politicians believe homeowners are more invested in local communities, so they are less likely to commit...
Homeownership is dead

Thursday, October 8, 2015

OCHN: Homes as ATMs made housing bubble and crash worse

Unrestricted mortgage equity withdrawal provides incentive for buyers to bid up house prices to create equity they can borrow and spend.

Bubble thinking is rampant, and the primary reason for its persistence is that people want the free spending money houses provide. The huge financial reward ...
Homes as ATMs made housing bubble and crash worse

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

OCHN: When should pundits admit their mistakes?

Is it better to be widely known as a permabear or permabull? Or is it better to change with the times and gain credibility through correctness?

Pundits who issue forecasts want to be right, and they want to be acknowledged as being right. In the world of punditry, credibility is everything, and...
When should pundits admit their mistakes?

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

OCHN: California"s Inland Empire is not a housing bubble

House prices in California’s Inland Empire are at or below their stable relationship between the cost of ownership and the cost of rent.

After the devastating collapse of house prices in 2008-2012, buyers are rightfully wary of buying into another bubble. After watching their neighbors...
California"s Inland Empire is not a housing bubble

Monday, October 5, 2015

OCHN: Five measures necessary to reduce government mortgage loan guarantees

The US taxpayer insures most of the mortgages in the United States today, exposing you and me to trillions in potential losses in a future housing bust.

Prior to the collapse of the housing bubble, when lenders gave free money to loan owners, it was theirs to give — and to lose. But when the l...
Five measures necessary to reduce government mortgage loan guarantees

Saturday, October 3, 2015

OCHN: Orange County Housing Market Report: October 2015

4.2.7
Historically, properties in this market sell at a 0.6% premium. Today’s discount is 3.6%. This market is 4.2% undervalued.
Median home price is $597,800 with a rental parity value of $629,100. This market’s discount is $31,300.
Monthly payment affordability has been worsening...
Orange County Housing Market Report: October 2015

Friday, October 2, 2015

Debt Default: Low MLS inventory was a boon to homebuilders

Monday, in the post Can the Fed reflate the housing bubble without negative side effects?, I discussed the various market distortions resulting from the federal reserve’s zero-interest-rate policy. The inflated asset values are byproducts of the fed’s actions, but with respect to...
Low MLS inventory was a boon to homebuilders

OCHN: Are real estate "pocket listings" a good way to sell homes?

Are properties for sale but withheld from the MLS, so-called pocket listings, a viable way to sell real estate or a seller ripoff?

A for-sale property that is not listed on the MLS is a “pocket listing.” Sellers, particularly famous sellers, who don’t want legions of potential...
Are real estate "pocket listings" a good way to sell homes?

Thursday, October 1, 2015

OCHN: Top five ways to sabotage the housing market

To sabotage the housing market, remove homeowner equity and raise borrowing costs. The result is a collapse of the move-up market and very low sales.

Sometimes to find the best solution to a problem, examining how the problem could be made worse reveals options and perils that might otherwise...
Top five ways to sabotage the housing market