tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3329419642567789295.post122261968390481189..comments2023-10-30T06:49:13.259-07:00Comments on Larry Roberts real estate writing blog: What will 2008 be like?Larry Robertshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07551274023310137270noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3329419642567789295.post-36714644900086248962007-12-31T14:08:00.000-08:002007-12-31T14:08:00.000-08:00I largely agree with you on your predictions excep...I largely agree with you on your predictions except that I don't think what happened in the early 90s is that comparable to what will happen this time.<BR/><BR/>On prices, yes we will see prices come back in line with incomes and rents, but the cause is different this time. Last time it was a recession that caused the housing plunge. People lost their jobs. The IE had 10% unemployment rate, nearly the highest in the country.<BR/><BR/>This time is was loose lending that caused the plunge. That may or may not lead to a deep recession. Yes, the economy will take a big hit as a big chunk of the IE economy was based on real estate and residential construction.<BR/>But many people will be better off financially after the foreclosure. Instead of paying every penny to the bank to try to keep up, they will be back to renting and have plenty more money to spend on other things. (As long as they weren't employed as a real estate agent).<BR/><BR/>Of course, their credit will be shot and the HELOC atm will be closed so I wouldn't want to be a car dealership in the next few years. Like you said, plenty of furniture and home improvement places will go under.<BR/><BR/>I think the larger IE economy will come out of this OK. Unemployment will go up and growth will come to a near halt, but I don't think to the levels we saw in the 90s.<BR/><BR/>I also don't think we will see the instant-ghettos we saw in the 90s like in Moreno Valley. Yes, some new tracts near old dumpy areas will go to hell quick, but most of the new home areas will eventually be nice middle-class to upper middle-class neighborhoods once all the liar loan people are forced out.<BR/><BR/>There are plenty of young people like me who didn't buy into the bubble mess who are waiting to take their spot. In fact, the neighborhood might be even better when the new people move in because these people will have money to do things like landscape that dirt back yard and make repairs when the house begins to age. And unlike the zero-down people, I will have a down payment invested in the house and will actually care about it.<BR/><BR/>Of course, the big question is how long will it take for prices to come back in line with incomes. A fast quick correction in 2008 that will put the median price in the IE in the low $200,000 by the end of the year would be great, but I think we have too many stubborn "owners" out here and the plunge will be much slower and more painful for everyone.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3329419642567789295.post-83675629808692749992007-12-31T11:22:00.000-08:002007-12-31T11:22:00.000-08:00Ha, show her that Suzy Orman video and then have h...Ha, show her that Suzy Orman video and then have her submit your bid at 2002 prices! Better yet 1998 prices.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3329419642567789295.post-2002277756351756412007-12-31T11:07:00.000-08:002007-12-31T11:07:00.000-08:00Wow, they were seriously laughing at that guy! I b...Wow, they were seriously laughing at that guy! I bet they feel like idiots now!<BR/><BR/>I'm still over here across town waiting for sellers in Victoria Woods to get a bit more realistic. $250-300/sq. ft.??? Man, they must have golden toilets or something. LOL!<BR/><BR/>I spoke to a real estate agent who showed us a few homes over there. She gave us the standard "Now is the time to buy" line. She also told us that home prices hold steady in VW through all markets, good and bad, so we might as well just bid on a house if we like it.<BR/><BR/>Me thinks I'll wait a bit longer ;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3329419642567789295.post-71234049768216781512007-12-30T23:49:00.000-08:002007-12-30T23:49:00.000-08:00Papasmurf, I know I'm a little hard on Realtors he...Papasmurf, I know I'm a little hard on Realtors here but my family has run across a few good ones over the years (Of course we've also dealt with some real losers too). I'm sure there are a few decent ones out there still.<BR/><BR/>I wish I could recommend someone but to be honest I can't. When I start to get serious about buying I will also be "testing" them to see if I can find a decent one. I will ask "what do you think of the market?". If I hear a line of BS I will let them know and move on. I want it hear an honest answer about the market. I want a realtor to tell me, hey the market is a mess but they will do their best to try and find you the home I want. I want a guy that is willing to tell a seller they are on crack if an asking price is way too high.<BR/><BR/>You are right about the smaller homes. They don't seem to be falling quite as fast, YET. I think as the decline spreads it will work its way into all price points. You might have to wait a little longer than people like me that are actually after a larger home. The smaller ones will follow because at some point people will just buy the bigger homes if the smaller ones are the same price.golfer_Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08426050465032209520noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3329419642567789295.post-59095701955795935952007-12-30T22:45:00.000-08:002007-12-30T22:45:00.000-08:00Funny stuff there GX!I too hope for a quick correc...Funny stuff there GX!<BR/><BR/>I too hope for a quick correction of prices as I would like to purchase a smaller, newer home soon. The bigger homes seem to be falling in price far more than the smaller homes. What's the deal with that.....<BR/><BR/>I've been talking with a few Realtors and I'm having a very hard time taking any of them seriously. It's like they all live in Oz or something. You ask them about the market and what do they think and they best line they can come up with is "there's never been a better time to buy". Are there any honest realtors out there?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com